Chance of a Significant Earthquake in Hong Kong

Tectonic setting of Hong Kong

Most earthquakes of the world occur along the boundaries of crustal plates. Hong Kong lies within the Eurasian Plate and is located rather far away from the nearest boundary with the Pacific Plate on the Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt that runs through Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines. The chance of a major local tremor is very small.

Earthquake risk in Hong Kong

Several scientific studies carried out recently showed that in Hong Kong, the return period for an Intensity V (5) tremor would be 15 to 20 years and that for an Intensity VII (7) tremor would be 350 to 400 years.

Trend of felt tremors in recent years

There is no evidence of an increase in the number of locally felt tremors in recent years. Since records began in 1979, there were altogether 54 felt tremors, 18 in the first ten years (1979¡V1988) and 19 in the subsequent ten years (1989¡V1998). In the last few years, three tremors were recorded in 1996, two in 1997, nil in 1998, eight in 1999, one in 2000, one in 2001, one in 2002, one in 2003, two in 2004, two in 2006, and one so far since 2007.