The current El Niño event started in May 2014 and persisted for 22 months, the longest as well as the strongest since 1950. The El Niño peaked in November last year and weakened steadily in early 2016. Taking into account the latest oceanic observations and forecasts by a number of climate models around the world, the El Niño is expected to continue weakening in the coming months, transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions around mid-year. There is a half chance that La Niña may start to develop in the latter part of the year.
(Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA)
Figure 1. Sea surface temperature anomalies of 31 January - 27 February 2016 in degree Celsius.
1. The next update will be available in the latter half of May 2016.