Revision of the annual outlook for 2011
(15 September 2011)

Four tropical cyclones came within 500 km of Hong Kong in January-August 2011. They were Sarika, Haima, Nock-ten and Nanmadol. Latest information including climate model prediction and assessment of the ENSO status indicate that the number of tropical cyclones entering the 500 km range of Hong Kong in September-December this year will be near normal which is around 2.7 based on climatological records. Taking the above into consideration, the Observatory expects the total number of tropical cyclones within 500 km of Hong Kong in 2011 to be between 5 and 7 and has revised its annual tropical cyclone forecast for 2011 accordingly.