Climate prediction centres around the world generate long-range forecasts, employing a variety of methods including dynamical models, statistical methods, expert judgment and combinations of them. The Observatory adopts an ensemble approach to formulate its seasonal forecast and annual outlook for Hong Kong, taking into consideration available products from major climate prediction centres and the Global-Regional Climate Model (G-RCM) operated in house.
Acknowledgement: The Observatory gratefully acknowledges the Tokyo Climate Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA for providing dynamical prediction model forecast and hindcast data to support the formulation of seasonal forecast and annual outlook for Hong Kong.
More details on seasonal forecasting (see use and interpretation) for Hong Kong and G-RCM can be found at the following papers:
1. Adaptation of NCEP RCM model for long-range forecasting
2. Short range climate forecasting at the Hong Kong Observatory and the application of APCN and other web site products
3. Prediction of seasonal Rainfall in Hong Kong Using ECPC's Regional Climate Model
4. Adaptation of Global and Regional Spectral Model for Seasonal Forecasting (in Chinese only)
