Winter forecast and monthly forecast

29 November 2024

In the past month or so, sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific were near normal on the whole. Based on the latest oceanic observations as well as forecasts by a number of climate models around the world, the cooling of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is expected to continue for the next couple of months. The sea surface temperatures of the region are likely to be normal to below normal in winter 2024/25.

Against the backdrop of climate warming, winter temperatures in Hong Kong exhibit a significant long-term increasing trend. The majority of climate models around the world forecast normal to above-normal temperature over southern China for winter 2024/25. Hence, the temperature of winter 2024/25 in Hong Kong is expected to be normal to above normal. Although the average winter temperature in Hong Kong is expected to be normal to above-normal, day-to-day fluctuations in weather and temperature can still be quite large with occasional cold weather. It is expected that the number of cold days in this winter would be near-normal. (Remark: Cold weather refers to temperature falling to 12℃ or below. The normal range of winter cold days is 9-17.)

Taking into consideration the past performance of climate models around the world, the latest ENSO status and its impact on winter temperatures in Hong Kong, the chance of near-normal rainfall in Hong Kong for winter 2024/25 is expected to be slightly higher.

The seasonal forecast for Hong Kong is available at this website.

Meanwhile, the Hong Kong Observatory launched monthly forecasts to enhance climate forecast services. The forecast elements include the monthly average temperature and total rainfall for the upcoming month in tercile categories, so that citizens can understand the potential changes in long-term weather conditions and prepare accordingly in advance.

The monthly forecast for Hong Kong is available at this website.