Projection of extremely wet and extremely dry years for Hong Kong
Projection of extremely wet and extremely dry years for Hong Kong |
Under the intermediate (SSP2-4.5), high (SSP3-7.0) and very high (SSP5-8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the number of extremely wet (annual rainfall > 3176 mm) and extremely dry (annual rainfall < 1289 mm) years [1] are expected to increase throughout this century. The number of extremely wet and dry years in Hong Kong during 1922-2014 are 3 (at 1982, 1997, 2005) and 1 (at 1963) respectively.
| SSP2-4.5 Intermediate greenhouse gas emissions scenario |
SSP3-7.0 High greenhouse gas emissions scenario |
SSP5-8.5 Very high greenhouse gas emissions scenario |
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Notes:
[1] A common way of classifying extremes is to use mean ±2 standard deviations as thresholds. Using this method for the period 1884–2014, a year with an annual rainfall at HKO headquarter greater than 3176 mm will be classified as an “extremely wet” year in Hong Kong, and an annual rainfall at HKO headquarter less than 1289 mm as an “extremely dry” year. For details, please see https://www.hko.gov.hk/hko/publica/reprint/r798.pdf