Projection data of extremely wet years and extremely dry years for Hong Kong

Projected extremely wet (annual rainfall > 3176 mm) and extremely dry (annual rainfall < 1289 mm) years [1] in Hong Kong under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

	Low SSP1-2.6		Intermediate SSP2-4.5		High SSP3-7.0		Very high SSP5-8.5
	Mean	Likely range	Mean	Likely range	Mean	Likely range	Mean	Likely range
Extremely wet years 2015-2100	6	2 – 16	6	1 – 16	6	1 – 7	9	1 – 25
Extremely dry years 2015-2100	1	0 – 1	2	0 – 4	2	0 – 3	2	0 – 7

The probability for the likely range to cover the outcome is at least 66%. Data source: WCRP CMIP6

Notes:

[1] A common way of classifying extremes is to use mean ±2 standard deviations as thresholds. Using this method for the period 1884–2014, a year with an annual rainfall at HKO headquarter greater than 3176 mm will be classified as an “extremely wet” year in Hong Kong, and an annual rainfall at HKO headquarter less than 1289 mm as an “extremely dry” year. For details, please see https://www.hko.gov.hk/hko/publica/reprint/r798.pdf

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