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Monthly Forecast

Monthly Forecast for October 2026


Hong Kong is expecting:
1.
 normal to above-normal temperature
2.
 normal to below-normal rainfall



Additional information:
  1. An anti-cyclone aloft will cover the coast of southern China and northern part of the South China Sea for most of the time in October 2026. Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon arriving the coast of southern China will be relatively weak. Temperatures over the region are expected to be normal to above-normal in the month.
  2. The overall rainfall over the coast of southern China in October is expected to be normal to below-normal, though the anti-cyclone aloft covering southern China will weaken slightly in the latter part of the month, favouring more rainfall over the region.

Assessment (as of 30 September 2026):
  1. Sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific stayed above normal for five consecutive months from April to August 2026, and the sum of the sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded 4.0°C. An El Niño event has been established. Based on the latest oceanic observations as well as forecasts by a number of climate models around the world, the warming trend in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is expected to continue. The El Niño event is expected to peak around November to December this year and to persist at least until spring next year. It is forecast to strengthen into a very strong event, with a chance of becoming the strongest El Niño event on record since 1950.

  2. Taking into consideration of the impacts of global warming and latest ENSO status, different climate model forecasts and other objective forecast guidance, the temperature of October 2026 in Hong Kong is expected to be normal to above-normal, and the chance of normal to below-normal rainfall in the month will be higher.


Note:
  1. The Observatory gratefully acknowledges the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the Tokyo Climate Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA for providing dynamical prediction model forecast and hindcast data to support the formulation of monthly forecast for Hong Kong.

  2. Monthly Forecast for November 2026 will be available around 1st November 2026.

  3. Monthly mean temperature and rainfall categorical forecasts charts.

  4. Ten days constitute a "ten-day period," and three such periods make up a month. The first ten days of each month are called “the first part of the month”, the second ten days are “the middle part of the month”, and the remaining days are referred to as “the latter part of the month”.

 
Monthly forecast charts provided by major climate centres:
Related links:
| Seasonal forecast | Annual outlook | El Niño and La Niña | Climate change |
For further information on this webpage, please contact Mr. W P Tse (tel:2926 8012, email:wptse@hko.gov.hk)