Monthly Forecast

Monthly Forecast for July 2026

Hong Kong is expecting:

1.	normal to above-normal temperature
2.	normal to above-normal rainfall

Additional information:

Broad trough of low pressure is expected to affect the northern part of the South China Sea and the coast of southern China in the first half of July 2026, resulting in more moisture transport to the region. The chance of having normal to above-normal rainfall will be higher in the month.
The chance of tropical cyclone appearing over the South China Sea and the seas east of Philippines is expected to be higher in the first half of July.

Assessment (as of 30 June 2026):

In the past month or so, the sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific continued to rise and remained above normal. Based on the latest oceanic observations as well as forecasts by a number of climate models around the world, the warming in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is expected to continue. The situation is forecast to develop into an El Niño event in late summer and persist at least until early next year, with the intensity likely reaching strong to very strong.
Taking into consideration of the impacts of global warming and latest ENSO status, different climate model forecasts and other objective forecast guidance, the temperature of July 2026 in Hong Kong is expected to be normal to above-normal, and the chance of normal to above-normal rainfall in the month will be higher.

Note:

The Observatory gratefully acknowledges the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the Tokyo Climate Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA for providing dynamical prediction model forecast and hindcast data to support the formulation of monthly forecast for Hong Kong.
Monthly Forecast for August 2026 will be available around 1st August 2026.
Monthly mean temperature and rainfall categorical forecasts charts.
Ten days constitute a "ten-day period," and three such periods make up a month. The first ten days of each month are called “the first part of the month”, the second ten days are “the middle part of the month”, and the remaining days are referred to as “the latter part of the month”.

Monthly forecast charts provided by major climate centres:

For further information on this webpage, please contact Mr. W P Tse (tel:2926 8012, email:wptse@hko.gov.hk)