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Monthly Forecast

Monthly Forecast for November 2026


Hong Kong is expecting:
1.
 above-normal temperature
2.
 normal to above-normal rainfall



Additional information:
  1. Anti-cyclone aloft will affect the coast of southern China and northern part of the South China Sea in the first half of November 2026, and the northeast monsoon arriving the coast of southern China is expected to remain relatively weak. Temperatures over the region are expected to be above-normal in the month.
  2. The anti-cyclone aloft is expected to weaken slightly in the latter part of the month, favouring more rainfall over southern China.

Assessment (as of 29 October 2026):
  1. In the past month or so, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific continued to rise significantly. The El Niño has developed into a very strong event. Based on the latest oceanic observations as well as forecasts by a number of climate models around the world, the warming in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is expected to intensify further, with El Niño peaking around November to December this year and persisting at least until spring next year. This very strong event is forecast to become the strongest El Niño event on record since 1950.

  2. Taking into consideration of the impacts of global warming and latest ENSO status, different climate model forecasts and other objective forecast guidance, the temperature of November 2026 in Hong Kong is expected to be above-normal, and the chance of normal to above-normal rainfall in the month will be slightly higher.


Note:
  1. The Observatory gratefully acknowledges the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the Tokyo Climate Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA for providing dynamical prediction model forecast and hindcast data to support the formulation of monthly forecast for Hong Kong.

  2. Monthly Forecast for December 2026 will be available around 1st December 2026.

  3. Monthly mean temperature and rainfall categorical forecasts charts.

  4. Ten days constitute a "ten-day period," and three such periods make up a month. The first ten days of each month are called “the first part of the month”, the second ten days are “the middle part of the month”, and the remaining days are referred to as “the latter part of the month”.

 
Monthly forecast charts provided by major climate centres:
Related links:
| Seasonal forecast | Annual outlook | El Niño and La Niña | Climate change |
For further information on this webpage, please contact Mr. W P Tse (tel:2926 8012, email:wptse@hko.gov.hk)