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Monthly Forecast

Monthly Forecast for March 2026


Hong Kong is expecting:
1.
 normal to above-normal temperature
2.
 normal to above-normal rainfall



Additional information:
  1. Under the influence of upper air disturbance and the exchange of cold and warm air masses, relatively significant rainfall episodes are expected over southern China in the first half of March 2026. The chance of having normal to above-normal rainfall over the region will be higher, and temperatures are expected to be normal to above-normal in the month.

Assessment (as of 27 February 2026):
  1. In the past month or so, the sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rose and remained near normal on the whole. Based on the latest oceanic observations as well as forecasts by a number of climate models around the world, the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is projected to warm through spring 2026. The sea surface temperatures of the region are expected to remain near normal for the rest of this winter, and then become normal to above-normal in spring 2026.

  2. Taking into consideration of the impacts of global warming and latest ENSO status, different climate model forecasts and other objective forecast guidance, the temperature of March 2026 in Hong Kong is expected to be normal to above-normal, and the chance of normal to above-normal rainfall in the month will be higher.


Note:
  1. The Observatory gratefully acknowledges the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the Tokyo Climate Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA for providing dynamical prediction model forecast and hindcast data to support the formulation of monthly forecast for Hong Kong.

  2. Monthly Forecast for April 2026 will be available around 1st April 2026.

  3. Monthly mean temperature and rainfall categorical forecasts charts.

  4. Ten days constitute a "ten-day period," and three such periods make up a month. The first ten days of each month are called “the first part of the month”, the second ten days are “the middle part of the month”, and the remaining days are referred to as “the latter part of the month”.

 
Monthly forecast charts provided by major climate centres:
Related links:
| Seasonal forecast | Annual outlook | El Niño and La Niña | Climate change |
For further information on this webpage, please contact Mr. W P Tse (tel:2926 8012, email:wptse@hko.gov.hk)