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Annual Outlook

Annual Outlook for 2024


Annual rainfall in Hong Kong
Near Normal
(between 2100 and 2700 mm)
Number of tropical cyclones
entering 500 km of Hong Kong
Normal to above normal
(5 to 8)
Annual mean temperature in Hong Kong





Assessment (as of 21 March 2024):

1. El Niño has shown a weakening trend and is expected to continue weakening, transitioning to the ENSO-neutral state by end of spring or early summer this year. Subsequently, the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are expected to continue to decrease, indicating a likelihood of La Niña development starting in the latter half of 2024.

2. Taking into consideration a number of factors including the development of El Niño/ La Niña mentioned above, climate model predictions and objective guidance, it is expected that the number of tropical cyclones coming within 500 kilometres of Hong Kong this year will be normal to above normal, around 5 to 8 tropical cyclones. The tropical cyclone season is likely to start in June or later, and end in October or later. The annual rainfall in Hong Kong for this year is expected to be near normal. However, Hong Kong is still likely to be affected by rainstorms. Members of the public are reminded to be prepared for the rain and tropical cyclone seasons.

3. As the climate continues to warm, the annual mean temperature in Hong Kong is expected to be above normal, with a high chance of reaching the warmest top 10 on record.



Note:

1. The yearly numbers of tropical cyclones entering 500 km of and affecting Hong Kong are not necessarily the same. For example, even when a tropical cyclone comes within 500 km of Hong Kong, its weakening, change in movement or making landfall would not necessitate the issuance of warning signal. A tropical cyclone outside the 500 km range but bearing a large circulation or interacting with the northeast monsoon over southern China could affect Hong Kong and necessitate the issuance of warning signal. Since the long-term averages of the number of tropical cyclones entering 500 km of and affecting Hong Kong are roughly the same, the forecast of the former is, to some extent, indicative of the latter.

2. The Observatory will assess the situation around mid-year based on the latest available data, and provide update of the annual outlook as appropriate.




For further information on this webpage, please contact Mr. W P Tse (tel:2926 8012, email:wptse@hko.gov.hk)