Annual Outlook
Annual Outlook for 2026
|
Annual rainfall in Hong Kong
|
Normal to above normal
(between 2400 and 3000 mm) |
|
Number of tropical cyclones
entering 500 km of Hong Kong |
Near normal
(4 to 7) |
|
Annual mean temperature in Hong Kong
|
Observation and assessment (as of 31 July 2026):
Note:
- Up to 30 July 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory recorded 1906.7 mm of rainfall and an average temperature of 24.1°C, respectively 30.9% and 1.3°C above the corresponding normal values for the same period. Meanwhile, tropical cyclone Noul in July entered the 500-km range of Hong Kong and necessitated the issuance of tropical cyclone warning signals.
- In the past month or so, the sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific continued to rise and remained above normal. Based on the latest oceanic observations as well as forecasts by a number of climate models around the world, the warming trend in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is expected to continue. The situation is forecast to develop into an El Niño event in late summer and persist at least until early next year. The event intensity is expected to reach strong to very strong, with an increasing chance of a very strong El Niño event.
- Latest climate model predictions indicate that for August-December 2026, the rainfall of Hong Kong is likely to be normal to above normal. Taking into account the observations from January to July, the latest forecast of climate models, and the latest status of El Niño, the yearly total rainfall is likely to be normal to above normal, and the annual average temperature will be above normal. The number of tropical cyclones entering 500 km of Hong Kong in 2026 will be near normal.
Note:
- The yearly numbers of tropical cyclones entering 500 km of and affecting Hong Kong are not necessarily the same. For example, even when a tropical cyclone comes within 500 km of Hong Kong, its weakening, change in movement or making landfall would not necessitate the issuance of warning signal. A tropical cyclone outside the 500-km range but bearing a large circulation or interacting with the northeast monsoon over southern China could affect Hong Kong and necessitate the issuance of warning signal. Since the long-term averages of the number of tropical cyclones entering 500 km of and affecting Hong Kong are roughly the same, the forecast of the former is, to some extent, indicative of the latter.