Annual Outlook for 2023
1. The yearly numbers of tropical cyclones entering 500 km of and affecting Hong Kong are not necessarily the same. For example, even when a tropical cyclone comes within 500 km of Hong Kong, its weakening, change in movement or making landfall would not necessitate the issuance of warning signal. A tropical cyclone outside the 500 km range but bearing a large circulation or interacting with the northeast monsoon over southern China could affect Hong Kong and necessitate the issuance of warning signal. Since the long-term averages of the number of tropical cyclones entering 500 km of and affecting Hong Kong are roughly the same, the forecast of the former is, to some extent, indicative of the latter.
2. The Observatory will assess the situation around mid-year based on the latest available data, and provide update of the annual outlook as appropriate.
| Seasonal forecast | El Niño and La Niña | Climate change |