Annual Outlook
Annual Outlook for 2026
|
Annual rainfall in Hong Kong
|
Near Normal
(between 2100 and 2700 mm) |
|
Number of tropical cyclones
entering 500 km of Hong Kong |
Near normal
(4 to 7) |
|
Annual mean temperature in Hong Kong
|
Assessment (as of 23 March 2026):
Note:
- The sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are expected to increase in this spring to reach normal to above normal, and the upward trend will sustain in the second half of the year, with the possibility of developing into El Niño.
- Taking into consideration a number of factors including the development of El Niño/ La Niña mentioned above, climate model predictions and objective guidance, it is expected that the number of tropical cyclones coming within 500 kilometres of Hong Kong this year will be near normal, around 4 to 7 tropical cyclones. The tropical cyclone season is likely to start in June or later, and end in October or before. The annual rainfall in Hong Kong for this year is expected to be near normal. However, Hong Kong is still likely to be affected by rainstorms and localised heavy rain. Members of the public are reminded to be prepared for the rain and tropical cyclone seasons.
- With the possibility of the El Niño development in the second half of this year and the continuous warming climate, the annual mean temperature in Hong Kong is expected to be above normal this year with a high chance of reaching the warmest top 10 on record.
Note:
- The yearly numbers of tropical cyclones entering 500 km of and affecting Hong Kong are not necessarily the same. For example, even when a tropical cyclone comes within 500 km of Hong Kong, its weakening, change in movement or making landfall would not necessitate the issuance of warning signal. A tropical cyclone outside the 500 km range but bearing a large circulation or interacting with the northeast monsoon over southern China could affect Hong Kong and necessitate the issuance of warning signal. Since the long-term averages of the number of tropical cyclones entering 500 km of and affecting Hong Kong are roughly the same, the forecast of the former is, to some extent, indicative of the latter.
- The Observatory will assess the situation around mid-year based on the latest available data, and provide update of the annual outlook as appropriate.