Annual Outlook
Annual Outlook for 2025
|
Annual rainfall in Hong Kong
|
Normal to above normal
(between 2200 and 2800 mm) |
|
Number of tropical cyclones
entering 500 km of Hong Kong |
Above normal
(7 to 10) |
|
Annual mean temperature in Hong Kong
|
Observation and assessment (15 August 2025):
- Up to 14 August 2025, the Hong Kong Observatory recorded 1779.7mm of rainfall and an average temperature of 24.1°C, respectively 5.8% and 0.6°C above the corresponding normal values for the same period. Meanwhile, tropical cyclones Wutip, Danas, Wipha, Podul and an unnamed tropical depression in June entered the 500-km range of Hong Kong and necessitated the issuance of tropical cyclone warning signals.
- In the past month or so, sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific were near normal on the whole. Based on the latest oceanic observations as well as forecasts by a number of climate models around the world, the sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are expected to remain near normal for the rest of this summer and autumn this year.
- Latest climate model predictions indicate that, for September-December 2025, the rainfall, average temperature of Hong Kong and the number of tropical cyclones entering the 500-km range of Hong Kong are likely to be normal to above normal. Taking into account the observations from January to mid-August, the forecasts for September-December, and the latest status of El Niño / La Niña, the number of tropical cyclones entering 500 km of Hong Kong in 2025 is likely to be above normal while the annual average temperature will be above normal. The yearly total rainfall is normal to above normal.
Note:
- The yearly numbers of tropical cyclones entering 500 km of and affecting Hong Kong are not necessarily the same. For example, even when a tropical cyclone comes within 500 km of Hong Kong, its weakening, change in movement or making landfall would not necessitate the issuance of warning signal. A tropical cyclone outside the 500-km range but bearing a large circulation or interacting with the northeast monsoon over southern China could affect Hong Kong and necessitate the issuance of warning signal. Since the long-term averages of the number of tropical cyclones entering 500 km of and affecting Hong Kong are roughly the same, the forecast of the former is, to some extent, indicative of the latter.