Seasonal Forecast

Seasonal Forecast for November 2026-January 2027

Hong Kong is expecting:

1.	normal to above-normal temperature
2.	normal to above-normal rainfall

Assessment (as of 29 October 2026):

In the past month or so, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific continued to rise significantly. The El Niño has developed into a very strong event. Based on the latest oceanic observations as well as forecasts by a number of climate models around the world, the warming in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is expected to intensify further, with El Niño peaking around November to December this year and persisting at least until spring next year. This very strong event is forecast to become the strongest El Niño event on record since 1950.
Under the backdrop of climate warming, November-January temperatures in Hong Kong exhibit a significant long-term increasing trend. The chance of normal to above-normal temperature is generally higher.
Taking into consideration of the latest ENSO status, different climate model forecasts and other objective forecast guidance, rainfall in Hong Kong from November 2026 to January 2027 is expected to be normal to above-normal, and temperatures are also expected to be normal to above-normal. Nevertheless, day-to-day temperature fluctuations can be considerable during winter, with occasional cold weather. Members of the public should be aware of the changes in the weather.

Note:

Climate prediction centres around the world generate seasonal forecasts, employing a variety of methods including dynamical models, statistical methods, expert judgment and combinations of them. Predictions from different centres do not always agree and large discrepancies can occur at times. To formulate seasonal forecasts for Hong Kong, the Observatory takes into consideration available products from major climate prediction centres, past performance of climate models, and impacts of El Niño/La Niña, etc.
The Observatory gratefully acknowledges the Tokyo Climate Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA for providing dynamical prediction model forecast and hindcast data to support the formulation of seasonal forecast for Hong Kong.
Seasonal Forecast for December 2026-February 2027 will be available around 1st December 2026.

Seasonal forecast charts provided by major climate centres:

For further information on this webpage, please contact Mr. W P Tse (tel:2926 8012, email:wptse@hko.gov.hk)