2026 Annual Weather Outlook

2026 Annual Weather Outlook

Chan Hiu-lam

The Hong Kong Observatory has released its annual outlook for 2026. It is expected that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean will rise to normal to above-normal levels in spring, and the warming trend in the region will continue in the second half of the year, developing into an El Niño event.

Taking various factors into account, including the development of El Niño/La Niña, climate model forecasts, and objective indicators, the number of tropical cyclones coming within 500 km of Hong Kong this year is expected to be near normal – about four to seven. The total annual rainfall in Hong Kong this year will be near normal, but there is still a chance of rainstorms and localised heavy rain. Everyone should be prepared for the rain and tropical cyclone seasons.

Considering the development of El Niño in the second half of this year and continued warming of the climate, the annual mean temperature in Hong Kong this year is expected to be above normal, with a high chance of being among the top ten highest temperature records.